I posted this 10 point calculation on a forum recently and I thought i would share it with you too. It paints a very scary picture for the waiting parents of Vietnam and if your sensitive to this don't read it.
I for one feel more comfortable being aware of the risks rather than closing my eyes and hoping for the best.
1. Over 2000 families are listed as to having requested a visa for a Vietnamese child.
2. Statistically, Vietnam has never placed more than 300 children within one year. There WILL be roughly 1700 families forced to move on without a child from Vietnam if the program closes in September.
3. There is a minimum 90 day wait for your final visa approval
4. In March we will know if the MOU was amended or signed (or not). If not Adoptions are to stop September 1st 2008 (less than 6 months later)
5. There still is a minimum 2 weeks travel to consider
6. Some Families who filed for visa's the day AFTER the I600 (in October) rules changed are still waiting in VIETNAM! This trend shows that there is no promise of accepting applications the 2nd of September.
7. We now need exactly 105 days (plus the time to accept the referral - say 2 weeks , so 120 days) to complete an adoption. This means that if you don't have your referral by MAY 4th then you may just be out of luck!
8. Most waiting time lines are 12-20 months (with only 8 months to go) So if in May you haven’t hit your 12+ month of waiting… serious second options should be considered.
9. Some families may opt to leave their dossiers with Vietnam in hopes of the program re-opening eventually (many of the first to adopt from Vietnam this time around were such parents from the last closure)
10. No one knows anything, that alone should tell you something.
I know this seems really pessimist but I figured that you may want to see things from a numerical perspective. BUT keep in mind that if in March the MOU IS signed and amended then none of this will matter and everything should be fine.
If you are not yet logged in with the IAD as a PAP, then I would definitely wait until the 1st of April. I would also consider Vietnam as a second choice and start looking for a more solid 1st choice.